I recently came across this interesting concept called the “Lindy Effect” or “Lindy’s Law.” It is a phenomenon or a theory that suggests that the older something is, the more likely it is to continue existing far into the future. The longevity of non-perishable things—especially ideas, technologies, cultural artifacts, etc.—increases the chances of enduring even longer. From ancient philosophies to classic literature, traditional recipes, rituals, and age-old technologies, some things not only survive but become more likely to persist the longer they exist.

The Origin

The Lindy Effect originated at Lindy’s Deli in New York City, where regulars noticed that Broadway shows and acts that had been running longer were likely to continue for even longer. If a play had been running for a year, it was highly likely it would run for another year. Or, if a play had been running for a decade, chances were it would continue for another decade. The origin of the term can be traced back to journalist Albert Goldman, who wrote an article in 1964 titled “Lindy’s Law” in The New Republic , discussing this observation. Later, mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot in his 1982 book The Fractal Geometry of Nature, formalized this concept as the Lindy Effect, giving it a statistical basis and applying it to more than just show business. He observed that things not subject to biological aging, such as books, ideas, or technologies, seem to have an increasing chance of continued survival with each passing year. The idea was later popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book Antifragile , where he generalized the concept to apply to ideas, technologies, and other non-perishable entities.

How it Works

The Lindy Effect is simple: for non-perishable things, longevity is an indicator of future resilience.

• Non-biological Aging: Unlike living beings, non-perishable entities such as books, technologies, cultural practices, etc., don’t undergo biological aging. A book’s paper may deteriorate, but its content and influence remain unaffected by biological factors. Thus, the survival of such non-perishable items over a time period suggests an ability to withstand external forces or competition, thereby increasing their probability of future endurance. If a book has been read for a hundred years, there’s no inherent reason it should stop being read tomorrow.

• Life Expectancy Increases with Age: At its core, the Lindy Effect proposes that the life expectancy of certain things is proportional to their current age. In simpler terms, if an idea, technology, or cultural artifact has existed for a certain amount of time, it’s likely to endure for an equivalent amount of time into the future. If a book has been read for 100 years, it’s likely to be read for another 100 years.

• Power Laws and Predictability: Mathematically, the Lindy Effect is related to power laws, which govern phenomena where longevity increases exponentially rather than linearly. This means that certain things, like ancient texts or enduring tools, gain future life expectancy as they age. For example, the durability of democracy as a form of governance over millennia suggests that it may continue to be practiced far into the future, despite societal changes.

_If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not “aging” like persons, but “aging” in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life!’

• Nassim Taleb, the author of Antifragile .__

Some Examples

While the theory and statistical explanations of the Lindy Effect seem complex, we see its effects in things we interact with and encounter in everyday life. Some examples include:

• Texts like The Iliad, The Odyssey, and ancient philosophies from figures like Confucius or Socrates that have survived for millennia.
• Works such as the Bhagavad Gita, the Bible, and Meditations by Marcus Aurelius that have endured through centuries, proving their value and relevance across diverse cultures and eras.
• Core mathematical concepts, such as geometry from Euclid’s Elements or the Pythagorean theorem, which have remained fundamental for thousands of years, indicating they are likely to stay relevant in education and science.
• Precious metals like gold and silver, which have been considered stores of value for millennia. Their enduring popularity as “safe-haven” investments suggests they’ll remain valuable long-term.
• Simple tools like the hammer, knife, and wheel that have been used since ancient civilizations and are unlikely to be replaced, as they fulfill basic and essential functions.
• Recipes such as Italian pasta, Indian curry, or Japanese sushi that have withstood time, maintaining their popularity and cultural significance across generations and geography.

Caveats

While the Lindy Effect is compelling, it’s not a universal theory. Some caveats can limit its applicability and predictive power:

• The Lindy Effect has a built-in survivorship bias, as it focuses only on entities that survived while ignoring those that didn’t. For instance, we may look at ancient philosophical texts that survived while ignoring countless others that have been lost or forgotten.
• The Lindy Effect doesn’t apply to everything. It’s only relevant for non-perishable entities, such as ideas, technologies, and cultural practices, and doesn’t apply to things with biological aging or natural obsolescence (e.g., humans, consumable goods, or software versions).
• It doesn’t account for disruptions or “black swan” events. For example, from 2001–2007, Nokia was the top mobile phone manufacturer in the world. If we applied Lindy’s principles, Nokia would likely have lasted another seven years. But in 2007, Apple disrupted the mobile industry with the iPhone, which ultimately led to Nokia’s decline.
• The Lindy Effect can sometimes lead to resistance against new, potentially beneficial innovations. By favoring the old simply because it has lasted, people might dismiss newer, potentially more efficient or valuable technologies and ideas.
• Some ideas or practices survive simply because they are deeply entrenched or institutionalized, sometimes without inherent value or adaptability. This can lead to outdated, non-optimal practices or ideas persisting beyond their useful life.
• Certain things may survive for centuries within a particular cultural or environmental context but may become obsolete if that context changes. For example, with the rise of mobile phones and internet communication, landlines have become nearly obsolete for most households. Though valuable in a specific era, shifts in technology and lifestyle made them unnecessary in today’s world.

Living by the Lindy Effect

Despite these limitations, the Lindy Effect can still offer practical insights for everyday decision-making. It can serve as a practical guide for making informed decisions with long-term value and resilience. Some ways the Lindy Effect can be applied in daily life include:

• Read timeless classics like The Odyssey, Pride and Prejudice, or 1984 to gain insights that have resonated across generations.
• Master traditional cooking skills like baking bread from scratch or making pasta by hand, techniques that have been enjoyed for centuries and add depth to home cooking.
• Invest in a quality kitchen knife that’s durable, easy to sharpen, and made to last, reducing the need for replacements over time.
• Develop a morning routine that includes journaling—a centuries-old habit practiced by figures like Leonardo da Vinci and Marcus Aurelius—to improve mindfulness and clarity.
• Learn foundational design principles in art and architecture that emphasize proportion, balance, and symmetry, which continue to influence modern aesthetics.
• Cultivate a reading habit with a mix of history and philosophy, such as Meditations by Marcus Aurelius or The Art of War, to gain perspective from timeless thinkers.
• Practice a classic board game like chess or Go to improve strategic thinking, as these games have challenged and entertained people for centuries.
• Adopt enduring technologies like HTML and CSS for web development; they form the backbone of the internet and are unlikely to become obsolete. Read my thoughts on evergreen blogs here .
• Invest in quality items like a durable pair of shoes or a classic watch that can last years, prioritizing long-term use over short-term trends.

I see the Lindy Effect more as a mental framework than just a statistical concept. While we can dissect its principles, at its core, it’s about valuing resilience, depth, and quality over fleeting trends. Yet, this doesn’t mean holding onto things simply because they’ve always been there; it’s also about recognizing when change is necessary. Finding this balance allows us to build a life rooted in stability and timeless values, with room for growth and evolution

References

1. The Lindy Effect by Toby Ord, University of Oxford
2. Lindy Effect: A Simple Heuristic To Predict Life Expectancy
3. Lindy Effect - Wikipedia