A thought experiment is an imagined sequence of events used to evaluate the consequences and outcomes of a hypothesis, theory, or principle. The Ovarian Lottery is a thought experiment popularized by Warren Buffett , one of the greatest investors of all time. The experiment was inspired by concepts from the book ‘A Theory of Justice ’ by philosopher John Rawls , which argues that a truly just society can only be created when everyone agrees on its principles without knowing where they’ll land in the society. The thought experiment stresses the importance of luck in life and focuses on when and where we are born in this world.

Ovarian Lottery, The Thought Experiment

Warren Buffett explains the concept with a thought experiment: Imagine a Genie appears 24 hours before you are born. The genie grants you the wish to determine the economic and social system into which you will emerge. However, there’s a catch: you have no control over where you’ll be born. If you play the lottery, you do not know whether you’re going to be:

• Born in India, Afghanistan, Somalia, the UK, the USA, or somewhere else.
• Born male, female, or another gender.
• White, Black, Brown, or of any other ethnicity.
• Tall, short, average height, or a dwarf.
• Intelligent, average, or cognitively impaired.
• Born to rich, poor, or middle-class parents.
• Aborted or die during birth.
• In school or forced to work in a cobalt mine for corporations.

Even if you’re playing the lottery, what sort of economic and social system would you create?
Would you even take the lottery?

According to Buffett, ideally, you would want to create a system that produces an abundant amount of goods that increase at a rapid rate so that future generations would have a better life. The system should incentivize the people who won the lottery but also ensure that those who didn’t win still have a decent life.

Buffett says, “When I was a kid, I got all kinds of good things. I had the advantage of a home where people talked about interesting things, and I had intelligent parents, and I went to decent schools. I don’t think I could have been raised by a better pair of parents. That was enormously important. I didn’t get money from my parents, and I really didn’t want it. But I was born at the right time and place. I won the ‘Ovarian Lottery.’”

Buffett was a special individual, born into the right family at the right time. His dad, Howard Buffett, owned a small brokerage, which gave him a head start in learning about investing. Buffett points out the case of his two sisters, who were equally smart and ambitious. However, at that time, there were very limited opportunities for women, and they couldn’t achieve as much. As a Caucasian male, it was easier for him to become a billionaire, unlike Oprah Winfrey, who faced a much tougher road to becoming the first Black billionaire.

The Gratitude Angle

“The womb from which you emerge determines your fate to an enormous degree for most of the seven billion people in the world.”
— Warren Buffett

At the time of writing this article, the world population stands at somewhere around 7.9 billion. If you’re reading this article, irrespective of your geography or financial status, you’re in the top 60% of the population that has access to the internet.

I feel like I’ve won the lottery. I was born in a developing economy as a male. I always had a roof over my head, never faced any problem accessing food or water, had opportunities for education, and was lucky not to be born during a time of conflict or war.

If I’m guessing right, most people with a computer, freedom to access the internet, the ability to speak some English, and smart enough to reach this website would never take the Ovarian Lottery. We always complain about the shortcomings in our lives, but think about someone born today in Afghanistan or a refugee camp in Somalia? Someone like that would likely be up for a gamble and would definitely take the lottery!

I also wonder about the randomness and the lack of control we have over our lives. Where we start in life has a tremendous effect on where we end up. This thought experiment gave me a sense of gratitude, and I’ve never felt so happy about my life until now.

I would love to hear your thoughts on the experiment. Would you take the lottery? If yes, what changes in the system would you make to ensure that everyone is served well? You can leave your comments or contact me .